Equity and bond market prospects

Réka Omaisz, Judit Hevér
Equity analyst, Analyst

Global macroeconomic trends form an almost unchanged picture, with purchasing managers’ indices (PMI/ISM) continuing to rise, but with consumer confidence and the American real estate sector weakening somewhat. Political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa has not had an effect on forecasting indicators for the time being, although it may bring forward the start of the cycle of monetary tightening through increasing inflationary expectations.

Although industrial production in the euro zone periphery has finally gained momentum thanks to higher export orders, anxieties over interest rate increases nevertheless lead us to maintain our negative expectations with regard to Europe.
The lower than expected value of China’s purchasing managers’ indices points in the direction of a more rapid economic slowdown than anticipated. Although Russia and Brazil are the big winners as regards high prices of raw materials, it is questionable how long the oil price will remain high as a consequence of the supply shock.